Geologists resisted evidence for catastrophic flooding because they wanted to distance themselves from Genesis.We’ve recounted the story of J Harlan Bretz several times over the years. His unconventional hypothesis about the origin of the Channeled Scablands in eastern Washington by catastrophic floods was resisted by the consensus of geological opinion. Now, two geologists propose that the massive canyons there and on Mars did not take as much water as previously believed. The write-ups of their findings reinforce what we’ve stated about anti-Biblical bias against catastrophism. Perron and Vinditti write in Nature,When the geologist J Harlen Bretz proposed in the 1920s that the Channeled Scablands were created by a catastrophic flood, his ideas were attacked relentlessly by geologists who subscribed to the mainstream view that erosion is slow and steady, and who wanted to distance their profession from the notion of a biblical deluge.Bretz’s triumph over his critics provides a classic case of a maverick overcoming a reigning paradigm through his personal courage and persistence, wielding incontrovertible evidence.The new consensus about the Scablands is strong, but needs modification, Perron and Vinditti say.Although the flood origin of the Channeled Scablands is no longer disputed, the sizes of the individual floods remain uncertain. It has become common practice to place an upper bound on the flow rate of the floods by assuming that they filled the present-day canyons to the brim. Estimated flood magnitudes based on this assumption range up to 60 cubic kilometres per hour — nearly 100 times the average flow rate of the Amazon River today. But these estimates might be much too large. Glaciologists have argued that it is difficult for ice sheets to store enough water to produce such enormous floods. The brimful-flood model also requires the unlikely scenario that each flood passing through the canyons was larger than the one that preceded it, because the canyon deepens as each successive flood erodes the bedrock.Now, Isaac Larsen (University of Massachusetts, Amherst) and Michael Lamb (Caltech) argue that about 5 to 10 times less water was required to carve the big canyons. Writing in Nature, they propose a “threshold shear stress model” to replace the brimful model. Their model has implications for other canyons on Earth, and for fluid-carved canyons on Mars as well.The threshold shear stress model implies that canyons in the Channeled Scablands were eroded by floods with depths that were a fraction of the relief of the final canyon (Fig. 4). This physics-based finding is consistent with several recent investigations of canyon carving at other sites on Earth and Mars: for example, those where bedrock incision by plucking or toppling of jointed rock occurs at depths less than brim-full, those where terrace chronology indicates multiple episodes of canyon incision, or those where lakes in breached craters contain insufficient water volumes to fill downstream channels.Our results suggest that the morphology of canyons (for example, terraces, valley shapes and slope profiles) on Earth and Mars could reveal information about both the history and discharge of flooding that warrants further investigation. The outburst floods that carved the Channeled Scablands were extraordinary under either end-member model, but predictions of discharges from the threshold shear stress model are five- to ten-fold smaller. On Mars, owing to the low permeability of aquifers, it has been challenging to reconcile the very large reconstructed brim-full discharges in outflow channels with a subsurface flood source. Given the proposed similarity in incision mechanics for outflow channels on Mars and in the Channeled Scablands, the threshold shear stress model provides a link between the physics of groundwater-sourced floods and terraces observed in orbital data, implying longer duration, lower discharge floods, or multiple floods on early Mars.NASA’s Astrobiology Magazine sums it up this way: “A new model of canyon-forming floods from UMass Amherst and CalTech researchers suggests that deep canyons can be formed in bedrock by significantly less water than previously thought.” Two consequences of this change of view seem evident. For one, it no longer seems necessary to presume that Mars had as much water as previously thought. A second implication is that floods on Earth can accomplish much more geological change with far less water. Rethinking the amount of water required “could reveal information about both the history and discharge of flooding that warrants further investigation.” This sounds like a shot in the arm for catastrophism.It’s not necessary to propose multiple floods (“tens of floods”) for the Channeled Scablands. Larsen and Lamb cite a 1985 paper by one guy for that idea. The important point is the tremendous power of water. If only 10% or 20% of the amount previously assumed could carve the Channeled Scablands, then it follows that a global flood would have correspondingly more power to alter Earth’s crust and sediments. It becomes more credible to associate a single catastrophe with the miles of sediments and deep canyons found all over the Earth, particularly on the Colorado Plateau where they are exposed so well with flat contacts speaking of a short period of time. Creation geologist Steve Austin mentioned “plucking” decades ago as a process that can accelerate bedrock erosion.Notice the anti-Biblical bias of the geologists of Bretz’s day. Perron and Vinditti say his views were “attacked relentlessly” because they seemed to support a Biblical flood account. The attacks went on for decades! Bretz stood alone against the establishment between the 1920s and the 1960s, when his views were finally accepted. (Remember that this was the period between the Scopes Trial and the Darwin Centennial.) We should not be discouraged if today’s secular materialists exhibit the same visceral reaction against intelligent design or creation geology. It’s hard to overcome an entrenched, powerful worldview. Its proponents sometimes never change. New views often gain traction one funeral at a time. Creation speakers have seen younger students be much more accepting of young-earth evidences than their hoary old dogmatic professors. We must keep the evidence out there where open minded young people can see it.Resource: Dr. Terry Mortenson’s DVD “Deep Time Evolution” from AiG has damning quotes from secular geologists from the 1790s and beyond, showing that they had made up their minds to hate Genesis before even looking at the evidence. Mortenson’s PhD specialty is the history of geology (see also his book The Great Turning Point for even more citations). He explains how evolutionists and creationists both have the same evidence, but their worldview drives their interpretation of the evidence. It takes courageous mavericks like J Harlan Bretz to stand against a crowd. Unfortunately, even Bretz did not take the implications of his finds far enough. Had he examined even larger canyons than the scablands, he might have been led to propose a world-wide flood. (Visited 96 times, 1 visits today)FacebookTwitterPinterestSave分享0
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Share Facebook Twitter Google + LinkedIn Pinterest Weather is driving the market right now. As forecasts adjust twice a day, the market can shift direction abruptly. At this point it’s really difficult for the market to fully estimate the actual amount of stress the corn crop has sustained so far and its impact on overall future yields. Contributing to the uncertainty is the significant amount of unpriced old crop corn still in storage by many farmers, which will continue to put resistance on higher prices in the short-term. Market actionUncertain about the market direction going into summer, and with less corn than I desired to have sold for the 2017 crop, I want to make another trade. With what I know today, I expect the market to be trading sideways from here until late in November. New trades I placed:6/12/17 — Trade #1 when Sep corn futures were $3.89Expected market direction — Probably sideways with some downside potential into fallTrade Detail — Sold Sep $3.90 call for 19 centsThis trade amount = 5% of planned productionExpires 8/25/17 after the crop condition is well knownPotential Benefit: If Sep futures close at $3.90 or below on 8/25, I keep all of the 19 cent premiumPotential Concern: no downside protectionFor every penny above $3.90 I get 1 cent less premium until $4.09 and I don’t have to sell any corn. At $4.09 or higher I have to make another corn sale at $3.90 plus the 19 cent premium which would be like a $4.09 sale. Because the sale would be against Sep futures I would have the opportunity to roll the sale forward and against the Dec futures which would likely add 10 cents of profit to the trade. Thus I could have a $4.19 sale in place.6/7/17 – Trade #2 when Dec corn futures were $4Sold 2 Dec 4.00 calls and collected 29 cents each (or 58 cents total)Bought 1 Dec 3.70 put and paid 11 centsNet profit: +45 cents (after paying just under 2 cents of commissions)All trades expire the day after ThanksgivingThis trade amount = 5% of planned production is protected to the downside What does this mean?Basically I have a floor price of $4.15 and a potential price ceiling of $4.45, but the outcome varies depending on the price of Dec corn at option expiration (which is the Friday after Thanksgiving).If Dec corn is near $4.20 at expiration I get about $4.20 for my corn• Every penny corn is below $4.22 to $4.00, 1 additional cent is added on to the $4.20 price (e.g. if it is $4 exactly I take home $4.45)• Every penny corn is below $4.00 to $3.70, 1 cent is subtracted from $4.45 all the way down to $4.15 (if it is at $3.70)• Anywhere under $3.70, and I still get $4.15 (15 cents above where the market was when I placed the trade)If Dec corn is above $4.22 then I have to take $4.22 on the this sale and I have to make another corn sale at $4.22 (even if corn is $4.50 or $5)Here is graph illustrating the results of trade #2Seems like a great trade, why not do more?This trade required me to do something that I normally caution against and that is to risk having to sell two bushels to protect one bushel from downside. So while there is still the potential of doubling up a 2017 sale at $4.22, I don’t want to commitment more than a max of 10% of my anticipated production right now. Trade summaryThe bottom line is this is a sideways market trade play with some downside protection.Market trades sideways = biggest profit (the closer the market is to $4, the better)If the market goes up I get a premium that puts me on my farm’s breakeven points or betterIf the market goes down I have a $4.15 floor priceIf there is a horrible drought I miss out a on a huge price rally, but I have much more of my crop left to sell.As I’ve mentioned before, I plan my grain marketing on what I think might happen based upon what I know today and historical trends. However, I still consider all possible scenarios the market could do. The market can do three things: go up, go down, or go sideways. So when making trades I need to be comfortable with all outcomes. That’s why I always balance potential premiums on each trade against the risk I’m taking if the market goes a different direction.Jon grew up raising corn and soybeans on a farm near Beatrice, NE. Upon graduation from The University of Nebraska in Lincoln, he became a grain merchandiser and has been trading corn, soybeans and other grains for the last 18 years, building relationships with end-users in the process. After successfully marketing his father’s grain and getting his MBA, 10 years ago he started helping farmer clients market their grain based upon his principals of farmer education, reducing risk, understanding storage potential and using basis strategy to maximize individual farm operation profits. A big believer in farmer education of futures trading, Jon writes a weekly commentary to farmers interested in learning more and growing their farm operations.Trading of futures, options, swaps and other derivatives is risky and is not suitable for all persons. 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A Web Developer’s New Best Friend is the AI Wai… Tags:#humor#web richard macmanus Related Posts 8 Best WordPress Hosting Solutions on the Market Top Reasons to Go With Managed WordPress Hosting Why Tech Companies Need Simpler Terms of Servic… Spotted this evening on the U.S. government’s public data web site, Data.gov. A Republican programmer at captcha provider reCAPTCHA having some fun? Hat-tip ReadWriteWeb’s Marketing manager Elyssa Pallai, who stumbled upon this humor gem today.
Tags:#news#NYT#web A Web Developer’s New Best Friend is the AI Wai… 8 Best WordPress Hosting Solutions on the Market Related Posts Why Tech Companies Need Simpler Terms of Servic… jolie odell Top Reasons to Go With Managed WordPress Hosting In an ongoing effort to help the poorest country in the Americas survive and recover from a devastating earthquake, hackers around the world are participating in CrisisCamp Hackathons this Saturday, January 16.The unconference-style events are free for attendees, who are asked to volunteer their time and expertise to create technology projects that provide data, information, maps and technical assistance to non-governmental organizations, relief agencies and the public. The CrisisCamps being held this weekend will all directly benefit Haitian relief efforts.Volunteers of all kinds – the technically talented and others, too – are requested to sign up.Hackathons are being organized in Silicon Valley, London, Washington DC and Boulder/Denver. Some of these events still need organization and leadership help; volunteers are asked to take charge and donate whatever time or resources they have available.UPDATE: Hackathons are also being organized in Los Angeles and Brooklyn.Proposed projects so far include a base layer map for Port Au Prince for NGOs and relief agencies, a family locator system, a volunteer skill matrix, a news aggregator to coordinate data feeds and ongoing definitions to support ongoing CrisisCamp efforts. For an idea of how these kinds of tech can help in times of national and natural disasters, check out Chad Catacchio’s post on crisis mapping.CrisisCamp’s goal is to gather topic experts, app developers and emergency first responders to create better technology and practices for crisis management and disaster relief. For updates and more information, follow CrisisCamp on Twitter.For more on what technologists are doing to help relief efforts in Haiti, check out these other RWW posts:Internet Rallies to Help Haiti: Here’s What You Can Do Right NowGoogle Offers Satellite Images of Haiti, Post-EarthquakeCloudCamp for Haiti: How the Cloud Can Help Aid Efforts
Aaron Ramsey ‘very happy’ with first Juventus goal: A beautiful momentby Paul Vegasa month agoSend to a friendShare the loveJuventus midfielder Aaron Ramsey was delighted to score in victory at Hellas Verona yesterday.It marked the former Arsenal star’s first goal for the Bianconeri.He told TMW: “I am very happy to have scored my first goal and it was even more important to bring these three points home. “Differences between Serie A and Premier League? I think it will take a few games to figure it out. For now I am happy for today, it was a beautiful moment for me. “My favourite position on the pitch? The one in which I played today, as a number 8. A box to box midfielder.” About the authorPaul VegasShare the loveHave your say
TagsTransfersAbout the authorCarlos VolcanoShare the loveHave your say AC Milan director Maldini jumps to defence of coach Giampaoloby Carlos Volcanoa month agoSend to a friendShare the loveAC Milan director Paolo Maldini has lept to the defence of coach Marco Giampaolo after defeat to Fiorentina.The Rossonero were thumped 3-1 at home on Sunday.“We chose the Coach, we will defend him, it is right to give him some time. We knew there were some problems that we’d run into, although obviously we didn’t expect to lose four of the first six games, but also the quality of the football is unsatisfactory,” Maldini told Sky Sport Italia.“Right now, it might look like a tunnel with no light, but as our Coach said, the way out is with hard work. We knew that relying on a young squad, during the period when we are waiting for the Coach to really become a leadership figure, there could be a risk of the pressure getting to them.“Of course, it is the fault of the players, the club, the Coach, everyone. Last season, we finished one point off the Champions League places and they always supported us.“I think the fans were right this evening to protest. The responsibility is to be shared around, otherwise it becomes too much of a burden to bear.“We are only six rounds in, all is not lost. We know that in football, situations can turn rapidly. The worrying thing is that we saw such a downturn in performance from the Torino game on Thursday.“It’s strange, because we played very well during pre-season and showed good organisation. There started to be some traffic in the central area of the field, causing some tactical problems and difficulty in moving the ball around.”
zoom South Korean shipbuilder Hyundai Heavy Industries (HHI) has held a demonstration ceremony for the installation of a liquefied natural gas (LNG) regasification system using glycol on board a 170,000 cbm LNG floating storage regasification unit (FSRU) at its Ulsan shipyard.Since the glycol regasification process is free from saltiness unlike a system that uses seawater, it can minimize corrosion in major equipment including heat exchangers and lower the risk of explosion that a system using propane may be exposed to, according to the shipbuilder.Regasification system is a key facility for an LNG FSRU that receives gas from offloading LNG carriers and provides gas send-out through pipelines to shore.LNG FSRU takes a year less and costs half as much as an onshore LNG terminal to complete. The facility, better known as “the LNG plant on the ocean”, can also move from place to place where the energy demand is in growth as it has its own propulsion system.After being granted an approval in principle (AIP) for the system from Lloyd’s Register last month, HHI said it is in the process of receiving the recognition for the system from other classification societies as well.HHI completed FSRU Independence, the world’s first newbuilding LNG FSRU in 2014.
LEAVE A REPLY Cancel replyLog in to leave a comment Twitter A man, who said he is one of the show’s producers, noted he could provide no details about which actors are on location, what they are filming or how long they will be in the city. Advertisement Facebook Advertisement Advertisement A handful of fans watching filming of Schitt’s Creek at the Sherwood Motel on Monday morning were rewarded with quick glimpses of stars of the CBC TV series.“I’m here hoping to get to meet Eugene Levy,” said Jesse Mask of Brantford, who had been standing at the front of the Colborne Street East motel for several hours. “That’s my goal for the day.”Mask and his sister, Katie Mask, said they saw the backs of Levy and co-star Chris Elliott in the motel parking lot surrounded by the TV crew. A fleet of trailers and other vehicles were parked behind the Sherwood, a landmark in the city for more than 50 years, which was still open for business. Filming for the final season of the CBC comedy series Schitt’s Creek takes place Monday at the Sherwood Motel on Colborne Street in Brantford. (PHOTO BY BRIAN THOMPSON / THE EXPOSITOR) Login/Register With:
Wide receiver Santonio Holmes is set to make his preseason debut for the New York Jets on Sunday night.The former Super Bowl MVP hasn’t played a game since his infamous benching in last year’s regular season finale.Jets coach Rex Ryan confirmed the news on Friday, saying that both Holmes and slot receiver Jeremy Kerley will face the Carolina Panthers. Their much-needed return should come as a big boost to a struggling offense that has failed to score a touchdown in the preseason. The Mark Sanchez-led first unit has yet to produce a point in eight possessions.“I hope it could be a big spark,” Kerley said. “Get some new legs out there and give Mark some [more] targets.”Holmes has been sidelined since being hit by cornerback Antonio Cromartie in an August 4 intra-squad scrimmage and suffering rib cartilage damage.The Jets’ only proven receiver returned to practice on a limited basis this week. The seventh-year pro from Ohio State started all 16 games last year, totaling 51 receptions for 654 yards and eight touchdowns.For his career, Holmes boasts 77 receiving plays of 20 yards or better and 17 that have been good for at least 40 yards. Two hundred fifty-six of his 338 career catches have gone for first downs.Holmes was named the MVP of Super Bowl XVIII after totaling nine catches for 131 yards and a touchdown to help Pittsburgh outlast Arizona, 27-23. Four of his receptions and 73 of his yards came on the game’s final drive, punctuated by his spectacular game-winning catch in the contest’s waning moments.Kerley has missed most of training camp with a slight hamstring tear.Ryan said he expects his starters to play three quarters Sunday, although both Holmes and Kerley will each be limited to about 10 to 15 plays.None of the Jets starters or backup quarterback Tim Tebow is expected to play in the team’s preseason finale against the Philadelphia Eagles on August 30.
Based on 100,000 simulations of the 2019 MLB seasonSources: Baseball prospectus, Fangraphs, Clay Davenport, Caesar’s Palace Avg. Simulated SeasonChance to… Teams that won substantially more than 100 games have tended to regress even harder. The 2002 Mariners, for example, won “only” 93 games after the 2001 squad tied a major league record with 116 wins; the 1999 Yankees won 98 a year after the team took home 114. The inescapable truth is that few major league teams actually have 100 wins of “true talent” on their rosters, much less 108. Most of these huge winners were aided by some not-insignificant amount of luck along the way.And it’s hard to argue that the Red Sox weren’t one of the luckier teams in baseball last season. According to the Pythagorean expectation, a team with Boston’s runs scored and allowed should have won four games fewer than it actually did. Furthermore, a team with Boston’s particular statistical profile (its singles, doubles, walks, etc. — both for and against) should have had a Pythagorean record five games worse than it actually did. Add up those two categories, and the Red Sox benefited from an MLB-high 10 extra wins of luck, whether through prevailing in the relative toss-ups of close games or through stringing hits together (or stranding opposing runners) in an unusually favorable manner.On top of all that, there’s another way a team can have everything go right for it, and that’s at the player level: Did everyone outperform their expected levels of performance at once? Injuries can often play a role here — though the Red Sox were in the middle of the pack in terms of man-games lost to the injured list. More pertinently, Boston also saw a number of players post career-best seasons last year, from American League MVP Mookie Betts (10.6 wins above replacement)4Averaging together the versions of WAR from Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs. to blockbuster free-agent signing J.D. Martinez (6.1), plus young up-and-comers such as Andrew Benintendi (4.1) and even longtime puzzles such as Eduardo Rodriguez (2.7).Altogether, 12 of Boston’s 21 regulars (those who played at least 2 percent of the team’s available playing time)5As measured by plate appearances and (leverage-adjusted) innings pitched, scaled to maintain WAR’s implicit 58/42 split between position players and pitchers. exceeded their established level of WAR, with only Jackie Bradley Jr., Eduardo Nunez and the catching tandem of Sandy Leon and Christian Vazquez significantly undershooting their previous production levels during the 2018 regular season.6You could also argue that more should have been expected of Rafael Devers, who had 1.1 WAR in a partial season at age 20 in 2017 but produced only 0.5 WAR with more than double the playing time in 2018. But Devers was also only 21, playing his first season as an MLB regular.And this is to say nothing of the unexpected performances the team received in the postseason from the likes of Steve Pearce — a fizzled-out former prospect who arrived in Boston via a midseason trade and ultimately won World Series MVP — or Nathan Eovaldi, another castoff who had a 1.61 ERA in 22 1/3 postseason innings. (Or, in general, the amazingly fortuitous splits the team had in crucial playoff situations.)All of those different ingredients explain how a team that won 93 games in 2017 suddenly exploded for 108 and won the championship a year later. But again, the pull of baseball’s gravity is strong. Based on data since 1990, we’d expect a team that improved by 15 games between seasons to give back about 5.2 wins the next season. It’s just another data point to toss onto the heap of statistical indicators that foretell a decline for the Red Sox heading into 2019.The good news for Boston is that if your starting point is a 108-win team, you have a ton of room to regress and still be one of the best teams in baseball. Even if the Sox didn’t truly have 108 wins of talent on the roster last year, they still played like a 98-win team according to their underlying statistics, and almost all of that team will be back this season (with the notable exception of closer Craig Kimbrel). According to an early preseason version of our 2019 MLB projections,7Not including Tuesday’s news of Manny Machado signing with the San Diego Padres, although that move has minimal implications for the Red Sox. we rate Boston as the third-best team in baseball, with a 95-67 projected record and a 10 percent chance of repeating as champs, which is also tied for third-best in MLB.Trouble is, that might make the Red Sox only the second-best team in their own division. Our simulations consider the archrival New York Yankees just as likely as Boston to win the World Series and actually think that New York is ever-so-slightly better talent-wise. Although the Sox got the better of the Yankees last season, winning 13 of 23 games (including an August sweep and a four-game division series victory), for all intents and purposes, our projections have the two teams in an absolute dead heat as we look ahead to 2019: And the Red Sox could be running out of time to make the most of their current core. By 2021, Betts, Bradley, Chris Sale, Xander Bogaerts and Rick Porcello (plus potentially Martinez, who has an opt-out clause) will have all hit free agency. And team president Dave Dombrowski built 2018’s champion in part by bucking MLB’s prospect-hoarding trend and emptying out the farm system’s next generation in favor of short-term wins, so reinforcements aren’t exactly on the way.The result of Dombrowski’s moves was a championship, and one of baseball’s all-time great single season performances, so I’m pretty sure it was worth it. The question now is how steep the drop-off will be in 2019 — and beyond. In many ways, Boston caught lightning in a bottle last season, enjoying the kind of magical year that comes along only once every decade or so. But if history is any guide, the follow-up will have trouble coming close to matching the original. TeamElo RatingWinsLossesRun Diff.Make PlayoffsWin DivisionWin World Series Orioles142160102-1981<1<1 The Red Sox still have a Yankees problem on their handsHow our preliminary Elo ratings are forecasting the 2019 AL East race Yankees15669567+13774%41%10% Blue Jays14837587-521331 It’s hard to imagine things going more right for the Boston Red Sox than they did last season. Boston jumped out to a scorching 17-2 start, was 38 games over .500 by the All-Star break, posted the most regular-season wins (108) by an MLB team in 17 years, and then steamrolled through the playoffs with an 11-3 postseason record en route to a World Series title. Statistically, it was probably the most impressive performance any major team had in 2018.1Among teams for which we had have game-by-game Elo ratings and predictions — in men’s pro and college football and basketball and Major League Baseball.But now the calendar has flipped to 2019, and as spring training warms up for the Sox in Fort Myers, Florida, Boston must focus on defending its crown — and staving off the inevitable regression that comes in the wake of a season as charmed as the one the Red Sox just enjoyed.As a rule, clubs that win a crazy number of ballgames in one season tend to come back down to earth quickly in the next. Of the 32 teams that cracked the century mark in wins (per 162 games)2We’re including teams in strike-shortened seasons — like the 1994 Montreal Expos — whose wins would prorate out to at least 100. since 1990, 28 had an inferior record the next year,3One team — the 101-win 2003 Yankees — compiled the same number of wins the next season. and 24 failed to return to the 100-win club. (Thirteen failed to break even 95 wins.) On average, these 32 triple-digit winners declined by 9.6 wins the following season. Rays15278676+5042153 Red Sox15649567+136744110