上海419论坛,上海龙凤419,爱上海 – Powered by Teri Savorn!

Tag Archive: 南京桑拿

Moose FM Block Party back and bigger than ever!!

first_imgLet’s start with the North Peace Savings & Credit Union Main Stage. You will see street performances from Circus of Hell, The Chairmen and more. You’ll also see live and local music.Then there is the special kids area with the separate Kids Stage sponsored by the City of Fort St. John. This stage will see performances by Mindy from the Evangel Chapel and Jason the Magician.On top of this there will be bouncy toys from Evangel Chapel, a petting zoo, face painting and more.- Advertisement -The Classic Cruisers will be on site with a special show and shine, we have Emergency Services on site with displays from the RCMP, Fire Department and B.C. Ambulance, a local Arts market and of course food.If that wasn’t enough…new this year is a Family Dance. Evangel Chapel will hold a family dance from 7 p.m. to 11 p.m. that night.We have more details and a full schedule still to come. Don’t forget we need volunteers, please all our office to sign up – 250-787-7100 or visit the Block Party website moosefmblockparty.caAdvertisementlast_img read more

Liverpool line-up v Besiktas: No Coutinho or Henderson for Reds as Rodgers plans for weekend clash

first_imgBrendan Rodgers has taken a pretty big gamble on his quest for a top four spot by leaving Philippe Coutinho, Jordan Henderson and Mamadou Sakho back on Merseyside, but that doesn’t mean the Liverpool boss doesn’t think his side can win the Europa League.With a massive clash against Man City waiting for them this weekend, the Reds’ paltry 48 hours to prepare for the domestic fixture has seen Rodgers take a calculated risk.That isn’t to say that he is planning on fielding a weakened side against Besiktas.While Coutinho, Henderson and Sakho watch on television, in their places are expected to come Dejan Lovren, Emre Can and Joe Allen – three very capable replacements.Liverpool were perhaps a little fortunate to pinch a 1-0 victory against their Turkish opponents in the first leg, and they may require an equal amount of luck if they are to progress to the last-16 of the competition.It is not just on the pitch there is intrigue, with three youngsters all believed to be vying for a spot on the Kop bench.Jordan Lussey, Cameron Brannagan and Jerome Sinclair are rumoured to be scrapping it out for the final spot in the matchday squad, although whether either of them will earn any game time remains unclear.A ‘leaked’ line up has been doing the rounds on Liverpool fan forums.Below is Liverpool’s ‘leaked’ starting XI: Brendan Rodgers faces a tough few days GoalkeeperThis will be a big week for Simon Mignolet, who remains under scrutiny, despite a strong show of form since his return to the starting XI. He is almost nailed on to start.DefenceWith Sakho back in England, the stage is set for Lovren to prove his worth. Alongside him will be Martin Skrtel and Kolo Toure.MidfieldCan has impressed as part of a back-three, but his versatility will likely see him move into defensive midfield. Alongside him will be Allen. Lazar Markovic’s suspension means that Jordon Ibe will retain his place on one flank with Alberto Moreno on the other.AttackLiverpool will miss Coutinho’s creativity, but in his place will be plenty of pace in the shape of Raheem Sterling and Adam Lallana. Daniel Sturridge remains as striker.Liverpool fans, how do you think you’ll line-up against Besiktas? Comment below…Besiktas v Liverpool is LIVE on talkSPORT, Thursday from 6pm. Click here to stream. 1 1last_img read more

Irrigation aid ends for season

first_imgSince the growing season for the principle summer crops is coming to an end, this will be the last weekly issue of Evapotranspiration (ET) data for the 2016 irrigation season. This was the 43rd season of providing ET information for the North Valley. The ET data will be made available next spring at the start of the 2017 irrigation season.This information is provided as a joint effort by the California Department of Water Resources’ Northern Region Office, the University of California …last_img read more

Conservatives Benefit Society

first_img(Visited 53 times, 1 visits today)FacebookTwitterPinterestSave分享0 If many social ills derive from lack of self-control and poor judgment, governments should foster conservatism.Choose to Control YourselfA paper in PNAS found that conservatives have more self-control than liberals:Evidence from three studies reveals a critical difference in self-control as a function of political ideology. Specifically, greater endorsement of political conservatism (versus liberalism) was associated with greater attention regulation and task persistence. Moreover, this relationship is shown to stem from varying beliefs in freewill; specifically, the association between political ideology and self-control is mediated by differences in the extent to which belief in freewill is endorsed, is independent of task performance or motivation, and is reversed when freewill is perceived to impede (rather than enhance) self-control. Collectively, these findings offer insight into the self-control consequences of political ideology by detailing conditions under which conservatives and liberals are better suited to engage in self-control and outlining the role of freewill beliefs in determining these conditions.This led to a variety of responses from other science media. Dawn Fuller on PhysOrg summarized the three studies, explaining that one’s beliefs about free will are crucial to the exercise of self-control, and conservatives tend to believe in free will with its associated value of personal responsibility.The association of conservatism with personal responsibility was also clearly made on Science Daily.“Effective self-control comes down to the extent to which you believe that you can control your behavior,” Clarkson said. “At the end of the day, the default seems to be that conservatives more strongly believe that they can control their behavior … than liberals.” And conservatives do control their behavior better than liberals, according to the study.This value spills over into beliefs about others’ responsibility:Differing perspectives on free will could explain several political differences among conservatives and liberals, the researchers surmised: One who believed less strongly in free will might arguably be more likely to attribute poverty, addiction and other hardships to sociological, economic and other factors beyond individual control. Such individuals might thus conclude, as many liberals do, that people struggling deserve government help. On the other hand, a believer in free will might be more likely to think people cause their own problems and should also solve them, rather than relying on government support, a typical conservative position.Clarkson believes, therefore, that programs to encourage more self-control need to start with ideology about free will.Who’s Anti-Science?The old canard that Republicans are anti-science is not supported by data, new studies admit. A Pew Research survey reported on PhysOrg by Seth Borenstein says, “There is not a one-size-fits-all explanation for the public’s attitudes on science.” Gaps between the consensus and the person depend on age or what the issue is more than political party. Results vary whether the issue is fracking, global warming, GMO foods, space exploration, vaccination, and other hot topics.  Another PhysOrg article reported that views on environmental issues show a stronger link to political ideology, but race, age, religion and education are non-trivial factors. Perhaps this is because environmental issues so strongly overlap with government regulation—a dislike among many conservatives.Jeffrey Mervis at Science Magazine implies that the findings were unexpected among scientists. “Contrary to perceptions, politics doesn’t always drive public views on science issues,” his headline reads.  Later, he has to correct scientists’ gut feelings:The poll also casts doubt on many scientists’ belief that people would be more supportive of scientists’ views on controversial issues if they just knew more about the topic. In only three of the 22 topics was a person’s level of education or general scientific knowledge (as judged by answers to six questions) a significant factor in their views. One was animal research, where only 31% of persons with a postgraduate degree oppose the practice, compared with 56% of those with a high school education. (The other two issues where education appears to shape a person’s stance were nuclear power and GM foods—in both cases, more knowledge leads to greater acceptance.)But if so many well-educated, intelligent people take issue with “scientists’ views” (if there is such a broad category), would this not cast doubt on the credibility of scientists? It might lead outsiders to think that “scientists” comprise a special interest group that get locked into a herd mentality. Mervis didn’t consider that possibility.Mervis and his “scientists” should go out and mix with real people more often. But that would require personal responsibility, which presupposes free will. Evolutionary scientists deny the existence of free will. That’s why they are liberals. That’s why they lack self-control, following the “consensus” like lemmings.Want a healthy society? Promote conservatism. Self-control has many societal benefits: care for the environment, excellence at work, better parenting, cleanliness, voting, taking care of one’s health, and much more. The more conservatives in society, the less government hand-outs would be needed. Government dependence would shrink, taxes would go down, and free market economics from all those responsible entrepreneurs would create a boom in prosperity that could be exported abroad. A lessening of entitlement spending (the largest share of the federal budget) would leave more money for scientific research. If scientists were really scientific—if they followed the evidence—they would take our advice and stop the nonsense about the “Republican war on science.” Science needs more responsible citizens and fewer pot-smoking, mantra-chanting, food-stamp-recipient, occupy-wall-street dopeheads who defecate in the street and expect someone else to clean it up.last_img read more

Quick Tips: Improving Your Product Shots and Commercials

first_imgThe key to an efficient product shoot is knowing which lights and what camera movement will deliver on your client’s expectations.The number one rule in product photography (video or photo) is making whatever you’re shooting aesthetically appealing — no matter what it is. That’s a lot of pressure. But let’s be real — it’s important to make clients happy and to keep getting gigs. So, how should you approach shooting something as mundane as a bottle, a box, a tool, etc.? Don’t Shoot Shallow FocusIn the video above, Kozu explains how shooting with a shallow depth of field can make the shoot seem lower-budget. Because you usually open up your aperture when you need more light, this “effect” makes it seem like you don’t have enough lighting for the product. It’s a simple aspect of the shoot that you might not consider. However, you must think about how your client will view the end result.Keep the Motion SimpleMake the shot about the product. Don’t try to outdo every other commercial you’ve seen. The focus should be on what you’re shooting, not how you’re shooting it. So keep it simple.Obviously, you’re not going to go out there and buy a KIRA or a MIA (or in this video’s case, a Bolt). That’s okay because those crazy, awesome, robotic camera movements aren’t necessarily something you need just yet. You can pull off all of the classic moves you need with an inexpensive slider or a jib.Double the MotionSo, in addition to some nice, simple moves, add a Lazy Susan turntable to the shot. Not only does this add more energy, it’s a cheap, totally viable way to increase production value. These simple, sleek turns will create the movement and presentation you need to really showcase a product, no matter what you’re shooting. You can pull this type of shot off using a jib or gimbal to push in or pull out from the product.If you’re interested in learning more about jibs and cranes, check out our video tutorial.Study the MaterialHere is, perhaps, the single greatest piece of advice: prepare. Preparing for the shoot can single-handedly save your entire video. With product shots, specifically, you want to know how light will react ahead of time. You want to know what lights to bring and how to use them. Knowing the product will also help you determine what types of motion and camera movements you’re going to need — one step guides the next. Recently, we covered how lighting a scene the night before can save you a lot of time and effort — the same is true here.If you’re interested in the specifics of how to light your product shoot, check out our tutorial below: Cover image via Indy Mogul.Looking for more filmmaking tips and tricks? Check out these articles.Production Tips: The Four Secrets of a Successful DocumentaryVideo Tutorial: Determining The Best Lens for Your ProjectThe Best Quotes from Directors, Editors, and Everything in BetweenTutorial: Removing Audio Pops and Recording Audio DifferentlyDirecting Challenges: How to Communicate Effectively with Actorslast_img read more

Messi and Tevez set to play in Kolkata

first_imgThere’s good news for football- crazy fans of Kolkata as Argentine superstar Lionel Messi and his teammates are set to play a FIFA official international friendly match against Venezuela at Salt Lake’s Yuba Bharati Krirangan on September 2.After various rumours, the official confirmation came on Monday when Celebrity Management Group, along with the state government, All India Football Federation and Indian Football Association announced this at a press conference.”The Argentina Football Association had indeed signed a contract to bring in the full- strength squad including Messi and Carlos Tevez among others. So the contract guarantees their participation,” said Bhaswar Goswami of CMG.The city-based sports management firm that had earlier brought football legend Diego Maradona in 2008 would also organise another international friendly match between Argentina and Nigeria in Dhaka on September 6.”We were given the match on the condition that we have to buy another. We did not think twice and bought both the matches just to make Messi play in Kolkata,” Goswami said.Argentina and Barcelona soccer star Lionel Messi. APThe Barcelona star forward and winner of the FIFA Ballon d’Or award was recently instrumental in his club’s Champions League win.Giving a brief detail about the itinerary, Goswami said Messi and Co. would stay in Kolkata for four days, beginning August 30.”We are also planning several other events which will be announced later. We are thinking of a minimum ticket price of Rs 1,000 – about $ 20 – a nominal price compared to the ticket prices in other international friendlies.”advertisement”For those who cannot afford to make the match, we would give them another chance as tickets for both teams’ practice sessions would be cheaper,” Goswami added.West Bengal sports minister Madan Mitra said he is getting full support from the chief minister to clean up the mess in the stadium where Messi is going to play.”The stadium is completely in a mess. We are leaving no stone unturned to make the stadium match- worthy,” he said.”It’s difficult to give YBK a complete facelift in such a short period. Our list of priorities include better toilets, changing rooms and passage ways. We will also bring a generator from Chennai to avoid the frequent blackouts in the stadium,” Mitra said.All India Football Federation vice-president Subrata Dutta said that the match would be a turning point in India’s football history.”This would inspire others to organise more such matches. It’s going to be a historical day,” Dutta said.In the same vein, IFA secretary Utpal Ganguli said, “I don’t think it would improve our standard of the game but surely it would popularise the sport. I am sure it would help more and more people turn away from EPL and other leagues.”- With PTI inputslast_img read more

Everything Went Right For The 2018 Red Sox Are The Champs Destined

Based on 100,000 simulations of the 2019 MLB seasonSources: Baseball prospectus, Fangraphs, Clay Davenport, Caesar’s Palace Avg. Simulated SeasonChance to… Teams that won substantially more than 100 games have tended to regress even harder. The 2002 Mariners, for example, won “only” 93 games after the 2001 squad tied a major league record with 116 wins; the 1999 Yankees won 98 a year after the team took home 114. The inescapable truth is that few major league teams actually have 100 wins of “true talent” on their rosters, much less 108. Most of these huge winners were aided by some not-insignificant amount of luck along the way.And it’s hard to argue that the Red Sox weren’t one of the luckier teams in baseball last season. According to the Pythagorean expectation, a team with Boston’s runs scored and allowed should have won four games fewer than it actually did. Furthermore, a team with Boston’s particular statistical profile (its singles, doubles, walks, etc. — both for and against) should have had a Pythagorean record five games worse than it actually did. Add up those two categories, and the Red Sox benefited from an MLB-high 10 extra wins of luck, whether through prevailing in the relative toss-ups of close games or through stringing hits together (or stranding opposing runners) in an unusually favorable manner.On top of all that, there’s another way a team can have everything go right for it, and that’s at the player level: Did everyone outperform their expected levels of performance at once? Injuries can often play a role here — though the Red Sox were in the middle of the pack in terms of man-games lost to the injured list. More pertinently, Boston also saw a number of players post career-best seasons last year, from American League MVP Mookie Betts (10.6 wins above replacement)4Averaging together the versions of WAR from Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs. to blockbuster free-agent signing J.D. Martinez (6.1), plus young up-and-comers such as Andrew Benintendi (4.1) and even longtime puzzles such as Eduardo Rodriguez (2.7).Altogether, 12 of Boston’s 21 regulars (those who played at least 2 percent of the team’s available playing time)5As measured by plate appearances and (leverage-adjusted) innings pitched, scaled to maintain WAR’s implicit 58/42 split between position players and pitchers. exceeded their established level of WAR, with only Jackie Bradley Jr., Eduardo Nunez and the catching tandem of Sandy Leon and Christian Vazquez significantly undershooting their previous production levels during the 2018 regular season.6You could also argue that more should have been expected of Rafael Devers, who had 1.1 WAR in a partial season at age 20 in 2017 but produced only 0.5 WAR with more than double the playing time in 2018. But Devers was also only 21, playing his first season as an MLB regular.And this is to say nothing of the unexpected performances the team received in the postseason from the likes of Steve Pearce — a fizzled-out former prospect who arrived in Boston via a midseason trade and ultimately won World Series MVP — or Nathan Eovaldi, another castoff who had a 1.61 ERA in 22 1/3 postseason innings. (Or, in general, the amazingly fortuitous splits the team had in crucial playoff situations.)All of those different ingredients explain how a team that won 93 games in 2017 suddenly exploded for 108 and won the championship a year later. But again, the pull of baseball’s gravity is strong. Based on data since 1990, we’d expect a team that improved by 15 games between seasons to give back about 5.2 wins the next season. It’s just another data point to toss onto the heap of statistical indicators that foretell a decline for the Red Sox heading into 2019.The good news for Boston is that if your starting point is a 108-win team, you have a ton of room to regress and still be one of the best teams in baseball. Even if the Sox didn’t truly have 108 wins of talent on the roster last year, they still played like a 98-win team according to their underlying statistics, and almost all of that team will be back this season (with the notable exception of closer Craig Kimbrel). According to an early preseason version of our 2019 MLB projections,7Not including Tuesday’s news of Manny Machado signing with the San Diego Padres, although that move has minimal implications for the Red Sox. we rate Boston as the third-best team in baseball, with a 95-67 projected record and a 10 percent chance of repeating as champs, which is also tied for third-best in MLB.Trouble is, that might make the Red Sox only the second-best team in their own division. Our simulations consider the archrival New York Yankees just as likely as Boston to win the World Series and actually think that New York is ever-so-slightly better talent-wise. Although the Sox got the better of the Yankees last season, winning 13 of 23 games (including an August sweep and a four-game division series victory), for all intents and purposes, our projections have the two teams in an absolute dead heat as we look ahead to 2019: And the Red Sox could be running out of time to make the most of their current core. By 2021, Betts, Bradley, Chris Sale, Xander Bogaerts and Rick Porcello (plus potentially Martinez, who has an opt-out clause) will have all hit free agency. And team president Dave Dombrowski built 2018’s champion in part by bucking MLB’s prospect-hoarding trend and emptying out the farm system’s next generation in favor of short-term wins, so reinforcements aren’t exactly on the way.The result of Dombrowski’s moves was a championship, and one of baseball’s all-time great single season performances, so I’m pretty sure it was worth it. The question now is how steep the drop-off will be in 2019 — and beyond. In many ways, Boston caught lightning in a bottle last season, enjoying the kind of magical year that comes along only once every decade or so. But if history is any guide, the follow-up will have trouble coming close to matching the original. TeamElo RatingWinsLossesRun Diff.Make PlayoffsWin DivisionWin World Series Orioles142160102-1981<1<1 The Red Sox still have a Yankees problem on their handsHow our preliminary Elo ratings are forecasting the 2019 AL East race Yankees15669567+13774%41%10% Blue Jays14837587-521331 It’s hard to imagine things going more right for the Boston Red Sox than they did last season. Boston jumped out to a scorching 17-2 start, was 38 games over .500 by the All-Star break, posted the most regular-season wins (108) by an MLB team in 17 years, and then steamrolled through the playoffs with an 11-3 postseason record en route to a World Series title. Statistically, it was probably the most impressive performance any major team had in 2018.1Among teams for which we had have game-by-game Elo ratings and predictions — in men’s pro and college football and basketball and Major League Baseball.But now the calendar has flipped to 2019, and as spring training warms up for the Sox in Fort Myers, Florida, Boston must focus on defending its crown — and staving off the inevitable regression that comes in the wake of a season as charmed as the one the Red Sox just enjoyed.As a rule, clubs that win a crazy number of ballgames in one season tend to come back down to earth quickly in the next. Of the 32 teams that cracked the century mark in wins (per 162 games)2We’re including teams in strike-shortened seasons — like the 1994 Montreal Expos — whose wins would prorate out to at least 100. since 1990, 28 had an inferior record the next year,3One team — the 101-win 2003 Yankees — compiled the same number of wins the next season. and 24 failed to return to the 100-win club. (Thirteen failed to break even 95 wins.) On average, these 32 triple-digit winners declined by 9.6 wins the following season. Rays15278676+5042153 Red Sox15649567+136744110 read more

5 things to watch for Ohio State v Florida AM

5. How many points with OSU score?The Buckeyes are averaging nearly 45 points a game so far in 2013, while the Rattlers are only putting up an average of 18 a game. OSU’s young defensive players are improving with every game, and against a FAMU offense that has been struggling, Miller and company should get plenty of possessions. How much Meyer forces the issue offensively against the Rattlers will be vindictive of how much OSU visits the end zone, but scoring more than 50 points again is certainly not out of the realm of possibilities. 3. How much playing time will Braxton Miller get?Arguably the biggest storyline heading into Saturday is whether junior quarterback Braxton Miller or redshirt-senior Kenny Guiton gets the starting bid to lead the Buckeye offense. Meyer said Miller will play a limited role against FAMU, but it will be interesting to see how it figures into the equation against a Football Championship Subdivision team. Guiton has led OSU to a pair of wins in his absence, playing well enough to be named the Walter Camp Offensive Player of the Week after his performance against California. Meyer said his backup “has earned some time,” and in a game OSU should win, it is likely that keeping Miller out of harms way will be a top priority for the coaches. 4. Will OSU take this game seriously?After winning a primetime game last weekend at Cal, the Buckeyes return home for a noon matchup against the Rattlers. With another night game on the horizon just a week later when conference rival Wisconsin comes to Columbus, OSU’s focus on taking care of the task at hand is worth watching. Redshirt-senior safety C.J. Barnett said the team has all of their focus on FAMU, but if the Buckeyes score early and often Saturday, Meyer and company may have to work to keep them locked in to close out the victory. Redshirt-junior cornerback Bradley Roby warms up before a game against California Sept. 14 at California Memorial Stadium. OSU won, 52-34.Credit: Eric Seger / Sports editor1. The return of Carlos HydeAfter serving a three game suspension for his involvement in an incident at a Columbus bar in July, senior running back Carlos Hyde is set to make his return against Florida A&M. Hyde rushed for 970 yards and 16 touchdowns in 2012, and was set to return as Ohio State’s top running back heading into the year. While Hyde was serving his suspension, redshirt-senior running back Jordan Hall stepped up in a big way, and will start against Florida A&M while Hyde is left on the bench. Coach Urban Meyer has said he does not know who will be getting the majority of carries, so both backs are heading into the game shrouded in some mystery. Other running backs like freshman Dontre Wilson and redshirt-junior Rod Smith may see a reduced role compared to previous weeks because of Hyde’s return to the field. 2. Can Bradley Roby bounce back?Redshirt-junior cornerback Bradley Roby is typically a rock for the OSU secondary and is considered one of the top defensive players in the country. But against California he was burned by the speedy Golden Bear receivers, allowing two touchdowns in his first start of the season. After serving a one game suspension to start the year for his involvement in an incident at a Bloomington, Ind., bar this summer, Roby made a triumphant return against San Diego State the week before, but seemed to be in a funk against Cal. With the Big Ten schedule looming, Roby will need to be at his best if the Buckeyes are going to achieve their National Championship goals for the season. Playing well before next week’s date with Wisconsin Sept. 28 will be vital for Roby’s (and OSU’s) defensive confidence. read more